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Global Market Leader Connecting traders to the currency markets since Learn more. Leverage our experts Our global research team identifies the information that drives markets so you can forecast potential price movement and seize forex trading opportunities.

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Without discipline there is not much chance for anyone to succeed. Such led to a slight increase in dollar demand in the market as well.

Long positions from 1. There, a discussion on the work of the Bank of England regarding economic recovery will commence, after which bank governor Andrew Bailey will step up and give a statement.

The British pound resumed the upward trend and continues to break all growth records. At the moment, this currency is close to two-year highs against the dollar and does not stop there for a second.

There was no normal correction within the trend that started on June We have repeatedly said that the British currency is too overvalued at this time from our point of view , and the American currency is undervalued.

Despite the huge number of problems in America, both economic and non-economic, we should not forget that the UK economy also contracted quite seriously in the second quarter.

In addition, everything is heading towards "hard Brexit". This was the original idea of Boris Johnson, and he continues to stick to his plan now.

The most interesting thing is that the European Union seems to have initially expected to conclude an agreement with London.

However, seven rounds of negotiations, which ended in nothing, dispelled all myths and hopes about this issue. The latest comments from all those involved reflect utter demoralization.

Michel Barnier has repeatedly accused London of not wanting to give in, and in his last comment, he said that "the negotiations are moving in the opposite direction".

The French Foreign Ministry officially accused London of delaying the talks. Germany refused to hold new talks at the highest diplomatic level. Thus, it seems that the Kingdom and the Alliance will not just complete the "divorce" on December 31, , but will also remain in a very difficult relationship.

It is no secret that it is the UK that is less profitable to "divorce" without an agreement. The EU has a stronger economy and will more easily take the blow of diverging from Britain in different directions.

Boris Johnson seems to have understood this from the very beginning. The British Prime Minister seemed to think that if you negotiate from a weak position, you will not be able to get any favorable agreement.

So Johnson went the way of the bluff. He pretended that Britain is ready to terminate all agreements existing between the country and the bloc.

And let the British economy suffer the most. On the one hand, his bluff was played, since now everyone believes that the UK will leave the EU without any agreement.

On the other hand, the EU is also not making concessions, probably understanding what London is trying to achieve. Thus, in this situation, we believe that the parties will start new negotiations next year, when the "divorce" will be officially completed and everything can be started from scratch.

Meanwhile, the States are preparing to approve the first American vaccine against the "coronavirus", without waiting for the completion of all the necessary tests.

The head of the FDA in the United States, Stephen Hahn, said that the request for approval of a particular drug should come from the developer.

And in the same interview, Stephen Khan said that the approval of the new vaccine can not get under pressure from US President Donald Trump, who previously promised the vaccine to Americans until November 3.

However, we believe that this will be a "political decision". Trump, who just criticized the Russian vaccine a few weeks ago, which also did not pass all the necessary tests, can now praise and promote the American vaccine, similar to the Russian one.

One of the main challenges in developing any vaccine is time. For example, large-scale human testing involves not only testing itself, but also identifying side effects and finding an answer to the question: is the vaccine suitable for all categories of people?

It can take up to a year to collect this type of information, as many side effects can occur in a few months.

Thus, a truly safe and effective vaccine should not be expected before Trump's haste is clear even to a child.

The American President feels that he is losing the election, so he decided to focus on an issue that could turn the attitude of American voters on its head.

We have little doubt that the coronavirus vaccine in America will be approved before November 3. As for the political ratings of Donald Trump, they remain very low, as for a candidate for a second term of the presidency.

According to the magazine's analysts, Biden can get votes, while will be enough to win. Other forecasts of American publications also predict Biden's victory, although not so devastating.

From all of the above, it follows that the situation in the United States remains tense and does not improve, and does not change.

However, things are not getting any more optimistic in Britain either. So we are very surprised to see how much the British pound is growing.

However, the case is the euro currency. In the European Union, everything is relatively calm, GDP losses in the second quarter are relatively small relative to American losses , and the "coronavirus" was still suppressed.

But the British economy leaves many more questions unanswered. However, it is the US currency that continues to fall in price, and very much so.

Thus, in the current situation, we continue to recommend traders to trade on the trend. The fundamental background does not speak clearly in favor of the pound, however, market participants continue to buy this currency.

This is especially true for large market participants and non-commercial traders. Most likely, the new COT report will show a strong increase in the net position of the "Non-commercial" category.

From a technical point of view, both linear regression channels continue to be directed upwards.

On Wednesday, September 2, therefore, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.

A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will indicate a possible resumption of the upward trend. Thus, today it is recommended to wait for the completion of this correction and open new long positions with the goals of 1.

It is recommended to trade the pair down with the targets of 1. Buyers of the pound failed to continue growing in the second half of the day and everything ended in the resistance area of 1.

Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart. You can see how the sellers actively rebuffed the bulls in the 1. At the moment, focus will be on the return of the 1.

It will be possible to open long positions only after you have settled above this level while expecting the upward trend to resume and an update of the high of 1.

The long-term target is 1. However, several rather important events are planned for today. The first of these is the UK Treasury hearing.

It will present a report on the work of the Bank of England. The first test of this area can lead to a rebound of the pair by points within the day.

A larger support is seen in the 1. Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders COT reports for August 25 recorded a reduction in long positions, as well as a decline in short positions.

This suggests that certain players are leaving the market, those who want to lock in profits at current highs in anticipation of very strong market fluctuations in the future.

The COT report indicates that there was a reduction in short non-commercial positions from the level of 47,, to the level of 39, during the week.

Long non-commercial positions declined more significantly from the level of 54, to the level of 45, As a result, the non-commercial net position also slightly fell, but remained in positive territory at 5,, up from 6, a week earlier.

Bears need to try to prevent the breakout of the 1. Unsuccessfully consolidating above this range and returning to the area under it in the first half of the day will create a good entry point for selling the pound while expecting to return and fall to the support of 1.

Settling below this range will form a more powerful bearish wave, capable of returning the pair to the 1. In case sellers are not active at the 1.

Trading is carried out just below 30 and 50 moving averages, which prevent the bulls from continuing the upward trend for the British pound. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1. In case of growth, you can open short positions after updating the upper border of the indicator in the 1.

Today, the pair has new support and resistance levels updated every day. Therefore, we can draw the following conclusions based on the results of the past 12 hours of trading.

First, novice traders can close short positions opened on the signal of overcoming the upward trend line.

The profit is about 60 points. Secondly, traders can leave sell positions open until the MACD indicator turns up.

Since it is already morning, which means that the European markets will start opening, we can expect a resumption of the trend movement, and it is currently descending.

Third, the price also reached the 1. Thus, we believe that if the 1. Novice traders need to decide which option they are going to stick to for today.

Important reports and events from the European Union are not scheduled for September 2. A report on retail sales will be published in Germany, but we do not believe that the market will particularly react to it.

Thus, we recommend novice traders to focus on the ADP report on changes in the number of employees in the private sector for August.

This report shows how the number of employed Americans has changed in a month. Recall that the last report for July was projected with an increase of 1.

Today, a growth of ,,, new workers is projected. Therefore, if this figure is exceeded, then we can expect the US dollar to grow further. Otherwise, the US currency will not receive support from the macroeconomic background.

In general, the dollar has not been in demand in the foreign exchange market for several months, but it is still able to show growth for several consecutive days.

However, the upward movement may resume in the near future, and the upward trend line may be realigned, changing the inclination of its angle no less.

However, at the moment there are no prerequisites for implementing this option. They will appear if the MACD indicator moves up, after which a strong upward movement begins.

In any case, novice traders had a great opportunity to reach the 1. Now they can open short positions before the MACD indicator turns up.

They can wait for a round of upward correction if there is one and, when it is completed, resume trading downward with targets at 1.

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines channels and trend lines.

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair.

Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The confirmation that the pair will have a difficult time near the important psychological and strong technical level of 1.

In the course of trading, the euro bulls tried to break through this significant level, but from 1. However, as expected in yesterday's review, such iconic levels are rarely overcome the first time.

If we recall yesterday's macroeconomic statistics, consumer prices in the Eurozone grew weaker than expected. In Europe, there is a slow and gradual economic recovery after the coronavirus pandemic, however, everything can not immediately return to normal.

This is understandable. This can be judged by yesterday's production index of the Institute for Supply Management ISM , which came out better than expected.

These macroeconomic factors may have influenced the price dynamics of the main currency pair. To finish with the fundamental part of the article, let me remind you that data on producer prices will be received from the Eurozone at London time today.

The United States will present the employment report from ADP at London time , and releases on production orders in the United States will be published at London time.

If we go back to the technical part of the review, the situation has changed compared to yesterday. Following the results of trading on September 1, a reversal model of candle analysis "shooting star" appeared on the daily chart.

Given that the model was formed when trying to break 1. Do not forget about the additional signal for a decline, which is a bearish divergence of the MACD indicator.

The main currency pair is currently trading near 1. At the same time, there are attempts to break through the red line of the Tenkan indicator Ichimoku, which is located at the former resistance level of 1.

The closing price of today's trading will be extremely important, however, there are still so many important events ahead that many things can change, and more than once.

Now, to return the pair to the continuation of the upward trend, they need to absorb the growth of the "shooting star" reversal model, that is, close trading above the highs of September 1 - 1.

At the moment, this task is very difficult. I dare say that the main impact on the outcome of weekly trading will be Friday's data on the US labor market.

Although there will still be many macroeconomic reports before this important statistic. In this timeframe, we can see that the pair is under very strong selling pressure right here and now.

I would venture to assume that with a decline in the area of 1. First, this level itself is quite strong technically. Secondly, there are 50 simple and 89 exponential moving averages, which can provide additional support to the price.

For today, I can offer the following trading recommendations. If bullish reversal patterns of Japanese candlesticks appear in the price zone of 1.

In the case of a true breakdown of the level of 1. Meanwhile, the dollar, despite the total weakening, followed the Eurocurrency, which almost reached the psychologically significant level of 1.

It is noteworthy that the euro reached a two-year high yesterday amid positive signs of a recovery in the European economy.

According to specialists' observations, there is an option barrier at around 1. The current rise in the euro occurred amid aggressive easing of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Along with this, the regulator announced a priority in the US labor market, in particular in favor of high employment. The Fed attributed the refusal to preemptively raise interest rates to curb inflation as most cost-effective.

Analysts say that the current situation threatens the global domination of the dollar and prevents its further growth. The US dollar could plunge to a level that has not been seen in over a decade.

The bearish mood also prevails among investors. As a result, market participants expect the dollar to further depreciate amid extremely low interest rates in the US.

This is such a negative factor for the USD as the strengthening of the prospects for economic growth in Europe and fears of a financial "bubble" worsen the situation.

On the contrary, experts admit corrective bounces from the dollar in the short term, and its fall may be beneficial for the market — it can improve the global financial climate, increase profits for American exporters and make it easier to service dollar debt to other countries.

According to experts, this may happen even before the US presidential elections. However, it is difficult to move upwards, and the level of 1.

Currently, the pair has fallen heavily, having pulled back from the highs. At the moment, it does not show any hint of the previous high levels, as if they did not exist.

This confuses the market, which is expecting to overcome this barrier. The rally of the single currency, which inspires the markets, will continue this year.

The USD should prepare for rising turbulence, which can result in a series of ups and downs that can weaken it. Meanwhile, the US employment report for the month of August was released.

According to the report, there are around , new jobs in the country. This is significantly less than the estimated 1 million - 1. This, however, hindered the continuity of growth of the euro which already fell to 1.

Previously, a temporary resistance level was formed around 1. On August 12, a new short-term uptrend line was initiated around 1.

On August 19, the mentioned breakout turned to be a buying trap. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards 1. Any downside pullback towards the key level around 1.

Initial target would be located around 1. Thus, enhancing the bullish side of the market in the short-term.

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